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Saturday, July 9, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

LINGFIELD PARK, SATURDAY, JULY 9, 2005




Going standard

Unfortunately, www.BritOdds.com has technical problems but normal service will be resumed as soon as possible

BP= best odds at the time of writing

2pm £50,000 Ladbrokes Silver Trophy Stakes Group Three All Weather Track 1m


1(12) -123 Autumn Glory Geoff Wragg 5-9-02 Steve Drowne 133
Winner of two Group Three affairs on grass. First attempt on the Polytrack surface. Steps back to a mile which may be getting a bit sharp for him. BP=10/1

2(2) 3114 Jack Sullivan Gerard Butler 4-9-02t Eddie Ahern
Has not run since good fourth in the 10-furlong Group One Dubai World Cup at the end of March. Took to the Nad Al Sheba surface well, winning twice, but is another who may find a mile on the sharp side. But has won on the Polytrack and looks on the upgrade. BP= 8/1

3(6) 4254 Mac Love Jon Akehurst 4-9-02 Gary Carter
Fourth in the Group One Queen Anne Stakes at York last time out - his best ever performance. Yet to run on the Polytrack but cannot be dismissed. BP=16/1

4(11) 1711 Vortex Gay Kelleway 6-9-02tb1 Martin Dwyer
Versatile performer - made his name on the all-weather tracks but has won his last two on turf. BP=7/1

5(8) -215 Akimbo Henry Cecil 4-8-13 Richard Hughes
Lightly-raced sort who was fifth in the Queen Anne Stakes at York, just behind Mac Love. Yet to race on the Polytrack. BP=16/1

6(9) 7338 Babodana Mark Tompkins 5-8-13 Jimmy Fortune
Consistent sort but was outclassed when eighth in the Queen Anne Stakes at York. Hampered on his one run at Lingfield on Polytrack. BP=28/1

7(1) 6324 Bahiano Clive Brittain 4-8-13 Seb Sanders
Has won here but he does not look good enough for this race. Best at distances shorter than a mile. BP=66/1

8(5) 4212 Court Masterpiece Ed Dunlop 5-8-13 Ted Durcan
Consistent sort who was just beaten by Vortex last time out. Has yet to run on Polytrack. BP= 8/1

9(4) 1151 Eccentric Andrew Reid 4-8-13 John Egan
The all-weather horse of the year whotook advantage of a good mark to win on turf. Usually makes the running - effective of 10 furlongs and a mile. BP=4/1

10(7) 8629 Lygeton Lad Gay Kelleway 7-8-13t Steve Carson
Held by stable companion Vortex and does not look good enough. BP=66/1

11(10) 3065 Pentecost Andrew Balding 6-8-13 Pat Dobbs
Fair performer but he has yet to run on the Polytrack and may struggle in this company. BP=40/1

12(3) 112- Chic Sir Michael Stoute 5-8-10 Ryan Moore
The class performer of the race but is having her first run for a long time and has yet to race on anything but grass. Worth opposing. BP= 3/1

SUMMARY
An open but tricky race. The value is Mac Love each-way at 16/1.



CODEBREAKER - FORMERLY IN THE RACING POST WEEKENDER

YORK. SATURDAY, JULY 9, 2005




3.55pm £150,000 46th John Smith’s Cup 10f 88yds

Main Trends

all of the last 15 winners were aged three, four or five

14 of the last 15 winners had raced between one and four times previously that season

13 of the last 15 winners carried between 7st 3lb and 9st 4lb to victory

13 of the last 15 winners have been drawn nine or below


Hopefully the rain will stay away from York this weekend as the Knavesmire plays host to its biggest Saturday featuring the 46th running of the John Smith’s Cup.


All of the last 15 winners were aged three, four or five including last year’s hero Arcalis, who proved a head too powerful for Promotion in a tremendous finish.


Of this year’s 20 contestants, this trend does not bode well for six-year-olds Blue Spinnaker, Crow Wood, Impeller and Krugerrand, or the old man of the field, eight-year-old Solo Flight, who are all eliminated.


Of the last 15 winners of the John Smith’s Cup, no horse had raced on more than four occasions previously that season before lining up at York, while at the opposite end of the spectrum only Pasternak in 1997 won on his seasonal debut.


Red Lancer, Artistic Style, Nero’s Return, Go Tech and I’m So Lucky have had more than four outings already this campaign and they are discounted together with Coat Of Honour, who will be making his seasonal bow at the Knavesmire on Saturday.


Weight in any handicap is crucial to the outcome - over the last 15 runnings of this very competitive race only two winners, Cezanne in 1994 and Vintage Premium three years ago, have managed to carry more than 9st 4lb to victory.


Joint top-weight Zero Tolerance, Notable Guest, Mullins Bay and Kings Point are the four remaining entries who are all on more than 9st 4lb and this quartet are discarded.


A good draw is another factor that connections hoped for - since 1990 Mr Confusion, successful in 1992 from stall 14, and Arcalis, in stall 18, are the only winners not to have been drawn in stalls one to nine.


This means that Credit (stall 10), Another Bottle (13) and James Caird (11) are considered unlikely to enter the winner’s enclosure here.


10 of the last 15 winners had their last outing on or after June 9 - Woodcracker has not been seen since running second at Newmarket in April.


Separating the final pair, Thyolo and REALISM, is no easy task but the latter is preferred. Clive Cox, trainer of Thyolo, can train thoroughbred racehorses, of that there is no doubt after he sent out New Seeker to win for the second time at Royal Ascot last month.


However, he has never won this contest unlike Richard Fahey, who saddles this week’s Codebreaker selection and struck with Vintage Premium in 2002.


Also Realism ran last time out at Sandown, as did five of the last 15 winners, while Thyolo appeared at York, something only one scorer has done.


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