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Saturday, July 12, 2003


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




ASCOT , SATURDAY JULY 12, 2003



2.30pm £65,000 Tote Exacta Handicap, 2m

GOING: GOOD TO FIRM

BP=best odds from Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Tote, Stanleybet, Bet365, William Hill

1) (1) 50-3 Double Honour Philip Hobbs 5-9-13 Martin Dwyer
Former decent stayer with Mark Johnston and proved to be a good hurdler for present trainer over the winter. Ran well when third in the Queen Alexandra Stakes last time out over two and three quarter miles. Whether he is as effective over this shorter trip is open to doubt and he may need some give in the ground..

BP = 16/1 except Coral Eurobet & Blue Square

2) (10) 3581 Gulf David Elsworth 4-9-11 Frankie Dettori
Has run some good races in good company but has been a little frustrating at times. Won conditions event at Goodwood last time, beating three, but this is a lot tougher.

BP = 10/1 Blue Square, Bet365 & William Hill

3) (5) 33-3 Distinction Sir Michael Stoute 4-9-09 Christophe Soumillon
Newmarket maiden winner last season and put up a fair effort when third on reappearance in decent Goodwood handicap back in May over this trip. 4lb higher here - his chance much respected, but he is not great value.

BP = 11/2 Coral Eurobet

4) (2) 5394 Red Wine Jamie Osborne 4-9-04 Martin Dwyer
Won the November Handicap last season and has been running well this season. Came late to be fourth in the Northumberland Plate and appreciated the give in the ground which he will not get here.
BP = 14/1 Tote, Stanleybet & William Hill

5) (13) 3001 Knavesmire Omen Mark Johnston 4-9-02
Stable in great form and this one bounced back to form with Listed win in Germany last time on very soft ground. Conditions will be very different here. Third in the Chester Cup.

BP = 14/1 except William Hill

6) (14) -023 Zibeline Rod Millman 6-9-01p
Often runs well in this kind of event - third in the Northumberland Plate last time out - but an infrequent winner. Should run his race but likely to find a few too good as usual.

BP = 10/1 Tote

7) (3) 1865 Moon Emperor John Jenkins 6-9-01 Willie Ryan
Has run well over this course and distance before and has shown signs of a return to form on his latest two outings. Probably acts on this ground and is an interesting contender. Bigger price than he should be because of unfashionable trainer and jockey. Good value.

BP = 33/1 Tote

8) (7) 1625 Saint Alebe David Elsworth 4-8-13 Oscar Urbina
Has looked progressive this season and looks sure to be suited by this step up to two miles. Will be at home on the ground but the value is not there.

BP = 8/1

9) (4) 0121 Sergeant Cecil Rod Millman 4-8-10 Richard Hughes
Been in great form of late with two wins at Sandown over 1m 6f and also a second over the same course and distance. This is by far his toughest assignment to date and he may prefer a bit of give in the ground..

BP = 9/1 Coral Eurobet & Tote

10) (9) 3124 Theatre Jamie Poulton 4-8-08 Steve Drowne
Landed decent handicap at Newbury back in April before going on to finish second in valuable handicap at Goodwood the following month. Bit disappointing at York last time but he cannot be dismissed.

BP = 14/1 Tote & Stanleybet

11) (11) 9660 Mana D’Argent Mark Johnston 6-8-07 Joe Fanning
Tends to reserve his best efforts for this track (won this race last year) and ran well when sixth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting after not enjoying the smoothest of runs. Clearly has a chance but has had plenty of tough races and is no value.

BP = 11/2 Bet365 & William Hill

12) (6) 0-42 Tom Paddington NON RUNNER

13) (12) 5340 Thewhirlingdervish Tim Easterby 5-8-01 Jimmy Quinn
Successful in Brown Jack Handicap over course and distance last season but a bit disappointing since. Goes on the ground but others appeal more.

BP = 9/1 William Hill

14) (8) 0687 Indian Solitaire Richard Fahey 4-7-12 Hiroki Goto
Caught the eye when finishing well over in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock last week. Should prove suited by this step up in trip and looks open to improvement.

BP = 16/1 Blue Square & Stanleybet


SUMMARY
This is an open race but the value is clearly with the rank outsider MOON EMPEROR, who is very generrously priced at 33/1 and 25/1 - back each-way.


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