Saturday, June 12, 2004
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
YORK, SATURDAY, JUNE 12, 2004
2.20pm £20,000 Queen Mother's Cup Handicap (0-95) for women amateur riders 1m 3f 198y
Going - good to firm
BP = at the time of writing but for the best current odds go to www.BritOdds.com (Click on link above)
1(2) 56-0 Rayshan 38 Howard Johnson 4-11-0 Miss P Robson 89
Fair horse over a mile and a half and a mile and six in Ireland last year. He ran twice over hurdles, winning once and then was second. Raced in the Chester Cup - the trip was probably too far and has dropped 9lb in the ratings. Has a good rider and could run well even though he has to give weight all round.
2(9) 15-0 Kuster 32 Luca Cumani 8-10-10b Miss F Cumani(6) 87
Finished third in this race last year and now races off an 8lb higher mark.. No real reason why he should do much better at the age of eight.
3(3) 6-05 Mephisto 28 Luca Cumani 5-10-5 Mrs Sarah Cumani 86
Showed that he was running into form when fifth in a Newbury handicap last time out and is ridden by the trainer’s wife. Must have a chance.
4(5) -113 Court Of Appeal 19 Brian Ellison 7-10-5t Miss L Ellison 87
Tenth in this race last year and races off a 12lb higher mark. This rider has failed on four occasions on him - doing best when second at Wolverhampton on the all-weather and coming second in this race in 2002..
5(6) -457 Danelor 8 Richard Fahey 6-10-04 Miss V Tunnicliffe(3) 91
Front runner who is racing over 12 furlongs for the first time, having been kept at 10 furlongs or a mile. This is the first time he has been ridden by an amateur rider.
6(4) 0-85 Sporting Gesture 19 Mick Easterby 7-9-08 Miss Serena Brotherton 89
Won this race last year and is only 5lb higher in the ratings. The same rider partners him. Sporting Gesture was only beaten a length last time and must have every chance, though is no value.
7(7) 1240 Lawood 4 Kevin Ryan 4-9-08 Miss N Carberry 86
Seems best on soft ground. This is the first time he has been ridden by an amateur.
8(10) 3006 Kylkenny 10 Hughie Morrison 9-9-06t Mrs Sarah Bosley 91
Second in this race last year and is 15lb better off for the short-head beaten then. Well handicapped also with Kuster. Has been racing OK recently and has an experienced rider. Get on. Fantastic value.
9(1) -034 Stallone 18 N Wilson 7 9-6 Mrs N Wilson(3) 87
Consistent sort but no real reason why he should triumph.
10(8) -762 Nicholas Nickelby 19 Mark Polglase 4 8-10 Miss Faye Bramley(3)
Has not tried beyond a mile and pulls hard. No chance.
KYLKENNY is thrown in - get on each-way.
CODEBREAKER-THE WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
YORK, SATURDAY, JUNE 12,
3.25pm YORK, WILLIAM HILL TROPHY, SIX FURLONGS
The main trends are:
None of the last 16 winners were maidens
15 of the last 16 winners had raced between two and five times earlier in the campaign
14 of the last 16 winners had previously finished in the first two at least once earlier in the season
Racegoers at York on Saturday, June 12, will have the privilege of witnessing some of the fastest three-year-olds in Britian battle it out to gain superiority in the £75,000-added William Hill Trophy.
All of the last 16 winners had previously gained at least one win either as a juvenile or earlier in their three-year-old careers.
As interesting as this statistic is, all of the maximum 20-strong field have been victorious at least once.
Over the last 16 runnings of this prestigious handicaps 15 winners had raced between two and five times previously that season. Bold Effort, successful in 1995, was the one anomaly having appeared on nine occasions in public earlier that term.
Bonne De Fleur, Latin Review, Big Bradford, Doohulla and Wanchai Lad have all raced less than twice in 2004 and this quintet disappear from the reckoning.
14 of the last 16 winners had previously finished in the first two at least once earlier in the season - the two exceptions were Artie two years ago and Aradanza in 1993.
This rules out Nero’s Return, Fast Heart, Two Step Kid and Rydal, all of whom have failed to finish second or higher this term.
Weight in any handicap is a great leveller and horses towards the bottom of the handicap have tended to fare best here, with 11 of the last 16 winners having carried 8st 11lb or less to success.
Traytonic, High Voltage, Glaramara, Danzig River, Fun To Ride and Local Poet all carry 8st 13lb or more and they are considered unlikely winners.
Similarly to weight, the stall that a horse emerges from is dreadfully important especially in a sprint like this. Only one winner since 1988, Orientor in 2001, has come out of a stall higher than 17, in his case 23 before the safety limit was reduced.
This does not bode well for Harry Up and Times Review, drawn 19 and 20 respectively, and this pair are discarded.
11 of the last 16 winners raced on or after May 25 including the most recent four scorers.
While Alderney Race will be a warm order here - especially as he won his last race at Leicester by five lengths and hails from one of the best sprinting stables in Britain at the moment, Roger Charlton’s - the son of Seeking The Gold last raced on May 18 and is ruled out as a result.
There are two remaining possibles, Delphie Queen and Mis Chicaf. Codebreaker opts for the latter because Delphie Queen won last time out over seven furlongs - only two of the last 16 winners raced over that distance immediately prior to success here, whereas MIS CHICAF has been racing and winning at six furlongs.
Confidence behind the selection is bolstered by the fact that she will come out of stall one. Ffour winners have emerged from this stall before victory since 1988 - Katzakeena in 1990, Sheikh Albadou the following season, Orthorombus in 1992 and Artie two seasons ago.
PS Last week's Codebreaker selection NORTH LIGHT won
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink