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Saturday, April 22, 2000



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

KEMPTON, SATURDAY, APRIL 22, 2000




BP=best price of Coral (C), William Hill (H), Victor Chandler (VC) and the Tote (T)
Going- Soft, Heavy in places

4.15pm BETSOV.COM QUEEN'S PRIZE HANDICAP (SHOWCASE) (CLASS C)

1) 00540-7Turtle Valley (IRE) Simon Dow 4-9-10 Paul Doe 12/1 (T)
Black, Grey armlets, Grey cap.

The Simon Dow-trained Turtle Valley carries top-weight and may be a little high in the handicap at the moment. He runs off a mark of 95 today, and despite the fact that Turtle Island's progeny enjoy soft ground, this is a mark 5lb higher than he has ever won off before.


2) 100/24-6 Prairie Falcon (IRE) Barry Hills 6-9-06 10/1 (H)
Light blue, white epaulets, armlets and cap.

This six-year-old was successful in a couple of amateur events over middle distances in 1998. He finished sixth on his reappearance at Newbury last weekend, and while he has won off a similar mark to today, that was in May 1997 and he may need to drop a few pounds further.

3) 541-6 Roman King (IRE) Mickey Hammond 5 9-02 Jimmy Fortune 12/1 (VC, C, H)
Yellow, Maroon seams, sleeves and star on cap.

Formerly trained by John Gosden, Roman King is now with Mickey Hammond. He is lightly-raced only having seen a racecourse on four occasions. He did win a maiden last season on heavy ground, but is quite difficult to assess because he has only run once in handicap company off a similar mark, being beaten 6.25 lengths by Exalted two weeks ago at Hamilton.


4) 331D30-Seren Hill Gerard Butler 4-9-00 Frankie Dettori 6/1 (T)
Royal Blue and Yellow diabolo, Yellow sleeves, Royal Blue cap.

Seren Hill's two career wins have both been on soft surfaces. She was considered good enough for a Listed contest on her last outing at the end of the 1999 campaign, and Lanfranco Dettori's booking today could be significant.


5) 250336- Bangalore Amanda Perrett 4-8-10 Kieren Fallon 9/2 (VC, T)
Dark Green and Beige (halved), sleeves reversed, Beige cap, Dark Green star.

Amanda Perrett's charge did quite well hurdling this winter taking a novices' hurdle at Fontwell. He has never won in handicap company but races on a mark 2lb lower than ever before today. Has lacked acceleration in the past so this step up to 2m could be a great help.


6) 511/54/1 Brave Tornado Toby Balding 9-8-09 R Brisland (5) 7/2 (VC, C, H)
Lilac, Rose quartered cap.

This one put his fitness from hurdling to full advantage when winning at Newbury last weekend, on his first flat appearance since October 1998. He may struggle off a mark 8lb higher here, but possibly has an each-way chance.


7) 3324/10- Serenus (USA) Nicky Henderson 7-8-07 Neil Pollard 9/1 (T)
Orange, Black epaulets, Black and Orange striped sleeves, Black cap, Orange star.

Serenus is an interesting combatant since he adores Kempton, and has won here on the flat, over hurdles, and now over fences following his latest outing in February. He is only 4lb higher than his last success on the flat so could run well.


8) 2/3200-2 Bridie's Pride G A Ham 9-8-05 Gary Bardwell 10/1 (C)
Red, White triple diamond, Black sleeves, Red armlets and diamonds on Black cap.

This one has always been an out and out stayer, but he has not won in his last 12 outings so should be treated with caution. However, he did run well behind Brave Tornado at Newbury on April 14, and reopposes today on 4lb better terms for a 3 lengths beating.


9) 1/0433-1 Final Settlement (IRE) J R Jenkins 5-7-12 L Newman (5) 10/1 (C)
Light Blue, Dark Blue chevron, hooped sleeves and cap.

Although Final Settlement only receives a 4lb rise for a win at this course on March 25, this may be enough to prevent a repeat since he only got up by a head on the line. The extra 1.5 furlongs
might bring further improvement so should not be ruled out.


10) 1110210-Captain Miller Nicky Henderson 4-7-10 J Mackay (7) 20/1 (VC)
White, Red seams, Red and White quartered cap.

Nicky Henderson's second runner has done all of his winning on the flat at about a mile, so this is a big step up in trip. However he proved a smart performer over hurdles this winter winning three novice events over a similar trip, and is another who should not be ruled out too easily.


Conclusion
The going at Kempton Park today is heavy which makes this competitive event all the harder to judge. A lot of the runners hold claims, while no single contestant jumps out as a good thing. The flat season is still in its early days and it might be better to wait for the form to settle down. A tentative selection is SERENUS, who really does love it around here and it would be no surprise if he won at this track for a fifth time. GOOD LUCK.




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