Saturday, April 22, 2000
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
KEMPTON, SATURDAY, APRIL 22, 2000
BP=best price of Coral (C), William Hill (H), Victor Chandler (VC) and the Tote (T)
Going- Soft, Heavy in places
4.15pm BETSOV.COM QUEEN'S PRIZE HANDICAP (SHOWCASE) (CLASS C)
1) 00540-7Turtle Valley (IRE) Simon Dow 4-9-10 Paul Doe 12/1 (T)
Black, Grey armlets, Grey cap.
The Simon Dow-trained Turtle Valley carries top-weight and may be a little high in the handicap at the moment. He runs off a mark of 95 today, and despite the fact that Turtle Island's progeny enjoy soft ground, this is a mark 5lb higher than he has ever won off before.
This six-year-old was successful in a couple of amateur events over middle distances in 1998. He finished sixth on his reappearance at Newbury last weekend, and while he has won off a similar mark to today, that was in May 1997 and he may need to drop a few pounds further.
Formerly trained by John Gosden, Roman King is now with Mickey Hammond. He is lightly-raced only having seen a racecourse on four occasions. He did win a maiden last season on heavy ground, but is quite difficult to assess because he has only run once in handicap company off a similar mark, being beaten 6.25 lengths by Exalted two weeks ago at Hamilton.
Seren Hill's two career wins have both been on soft surfaces. She was considered good enough for a Listed contest on her last outing at the end of the 1999 campaign, and Lanfranco Dettori's booking today could be significant.
Amanda Perrett's charge did quite well hurdling this winter taking a novices' hurdle at Fontwell. He has never won in handicap company but races on a mark 2lb lower than ever before today. Has lacked acceleration in the past so this step up to 2m could be a great help.
This one put his fitness from hurdling to full advantage when winning at Newbury last weekend, on his first flat appearance since October 1998. He may struggle off a mark 8lb higher here, but possibly has an each-way chance.
Serenus is an interesting combatant since he adores Kempton, and has won here on the flat, over hurdles, and now over fences following his latest outing in February. He is only 4lb higher than his last success on the flat so could run well.
This one has always been an out and out stayer, but he has not won in his last 12 outings so should be treated with caution. However, he did run well behind Brave Tornado at Newbury on April 14, and reopposes today on 4lb better terms for a 3 lengths beating.
Although Final Settlement only receives a 4lb rise for a win at this course on March 25, this may be enough to prevent a repeat since he only got up by a head on the line. The extra 1.5 furlongs
Nicky Henderson's second runner has done all of his winning on the flat at about a mile, so this is a big step up in trip. However he proved a smart performer over hurdles this winter winning three novice events over a similar trip, and is another who should not be ruled out too easily.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive