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Saturday, February 3, 2007


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday

Sandown Park, Saturday, February 3, 2007

1.35pm £50,000 Grade Three Fraser Steele HBLB Handicap Chase 2m

GOING: Good To Soft (Good in back straight)



for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


1) 3U-032 ONEWAY Mark Rimell 10-11-12 Robert Thornton
Third to Kauto Star in the last two renewals of the Tingle Creek Chase here and twice a course and distance winner. Fine second to Queen Mother Champion Chase favourite Voy Por Ustedes last time and on that run he should take some beating here despite carrying top-weight. BP=6/1

2) 2B-U4U DEMPSEY Carl Llewellyn 9-11-10 Timmy Murphy
A two-time course and distance winner and runner-up to Tysou in this race last year. Racing off a three pound higher mark, he is only one pound better off with that rival for two lengths and his erratic jumping this season makes him one to be wary of, though Timmy Murphy is back on. BP=9/1

3) -06411 MADISON DU BERLAIS David Pipe 6-11-04 Tom Scudamore
He continued his upward curve when defying a 9lb rise to land a soft-ground Southwell handicap over the distance last time. The handicapper has done him no favours for that, putting him up another 10lb - and he looks vulnerable against better opposition off his revised mark. BP=8/1

4) PP-36P TYSOU Nicky Henderson 10-11-01 Mick Fitzgerald
Overcame Dempsey in this race last year but has failed to recapture that form in five starts since. He is best on a sound surface so can be forgiven soft ground failures on his last two starts but this looks more competitive than 12 months ago. Unlikely to pull off a repeat off a 4lb higher rating. BP=11/1

5) 1F3-33 ANDREAS Paul Nicholls 7-11-01t Ruby Walsh
He has fair claims judged on his third to Demi Beau off this mark in a valuable Ascot handicap last time but that was back in November. He often travels well in his races but the fact that he rarely finds much when asked for an effort means that he represents little value. BP=13/2

6) 06-412 KALCA MOME Philip HOBBS 9-11-00 Tom O’Brien
He ran well to be third in this race last year and has continued in good form this term with a win over an extended two miles at Cheltenham in December. Stayed on when runner-up to a feather-weighted rival over two miles, three furlongs at Hereford last time. He has continued to rise in the ratings and is racing of his highest ever mark. Stable jockey Richard Johnson has deserted him for Chilling Place. BP= 10/1

7) F01-UF CHILLING PLACE Philip Hobbs 8-10-13 Richard Johnson
He was catching eventual winner Impek when badly hampered and unseating his rider in the William Hill Gold Cup at Exeter in October and then took a heavy fall on ground softer than ideal last time the folowing month. There is a fear that those incidents may have left there mark. He appears to have the ability to win a race of this nature off his current mark and must be considered. BP =7/1

8) 2P0634 GROUND BALL Charlie Swan 10-10-10 Richard McGrath
A decent performer over fences and hurdles, he was a fortunate runner-up to Impek in the William Hill Gold Cup. It is difficult to see this exposed individual winning but he is not without place claims if reproducing his very best form. May need further. BP=33/1

9) 01-525 HASTY PRINCE Jonjo O’Neill 9-10-07b Tony McCoy
Not disgraced when fifth in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last time. He stayed on to take second on his previous start in a two miles, one furlong handicap chase at Ascot, with three of these rivals behind. That was only his fourth chase start and he is open to further improvement but he looks like he will be better over further. BP=15/2

10) 410-11 JERICHO III Venetia Williams 10-10-07 Paul O’Neill (3)
Chasing a hat-trick after wins at Folkestone and Ascot. He faces a stiff task at the weights, having gone up another 6lb but is in great form and won over the course and distance last term so expect a decent show, especially as trainer is in grest form. This horse has been transformed since making the running. BP=14/1

11) -22521 BOHEMIAN SPIRIT Nicky Richards 9-10-07 Miss Rose Davidson (5)
Easily landed the spoils in a handicap over the course and distance on January 6. That was not a good contest by Sandown standards and he is better judged on his two lengths second to Kalca Mome at Cheltenham the previous month. He is 2lb worse off with that rival but is consistent. BP=12/1

12) B-52P3 BAMBI DE L’ORME Ian Williams 8-10-05 Dominic Elsworth
Fourth in this race last year and now seven pounds better off with Tysou for five and a half lengths. Whilst fairly consistent, he has won only two of 22 chase starts and it will be a surprise if he can make it three here. BP=16/1


SUMMARY

This is another competitive Saturday handicap with several holding solid claims. The value in the race looks to lie with JERICHO whose trainer can do little wrong at the moment.


Good Luck


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