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Sunday, February 25, 2007


SUPER SATURDAY AT RACENEWSONLINE

TWO FREE COLUMNS, THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN & CODEBREAKER, ARE FEATURED ON WWW.RACENEWSONLINE.CO.UK EVERY SATURDAY.


EACH COMES UP WITH ONE SELECTION AND ON SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2007, BOTH SELECTIONS WON - SIMON AT 11/2 FOR CODEBREAKER & CUSOON AT 11/2 FOR THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN.


SEE THE TWO COLUMNS BELOW



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday

LINGFIELD, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2007

3.40pm £26,000 Go Pontin’s Winter Derby Trial (Listed), 1m 2f

GOING: Standard (Polytrack)



for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


1) /1388- BIRKSPIEL Simon Dow 6-9-00 Liam Keniry
Group Three scorer and placed in Group Two in Germany on first starts for current trainer last year, having previously been in the care of Andreas Wohler. However he had two very disappointing Briish runs, finishing tailed off on latest outing in Group Three Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot in September. Likes soft/heavy turf, 12 furlongs and this is his first start on Polytrack. BP= 40/1

2) 47122- BLUE BAJAN Andrew Turnell 5-9-00 Chris Catlin
Very useful performer at his best, scoring three times last year up to 12 furlongs on turf and also finishing runner-up in the Cambridgeshire handicap at Newmarket and the Listed Churchill Stakes over course and distance in November. Could still be improving and could put up a bold showing on his first outing for a while but he is no value. BP= 11/4

3) 111-22 CUSOON Gary Moore 5-9-00 George Baker
In grand form on the Polytrack since October, rattling up a handicap hat-trick at Lingfield and Wolverhampton in December, and runner-up on both subsequent starts, latest when two lengths behind Mighty over course and distance on February 10. Weighted to to beat that rival here as he is 9lb better off for two lengths and comes from a stable in grand form. BP= 8/1

4) 0535-2 GRAND PASSION Geoff Wragg 7-9-00 Steve Drowne
Admirable customer, not quite up to Group class, who captured this race in 2004 and again last year. Ran well at Kempton after a break when chasing home Gentleman’s Deal over a mile on February 4 and will appreciate the step up in trip, but is always vulnerable to something with a progressive profile. BP= 11/4

5) -62311 PARTY BOSS Clive Brittain 5-9-00 Seb Sanders
Racked up a six-timer on the all-weather in 2004/2005 before being outclassed in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and has been out in the wilderness for a while, but this year has seen a return to form, winning last two starts at Southwell and here over a mile on February 17. This is tougher, though, and he is unproven over 10 furlongs. BP= 11/2

6) 33-111 MIGHTY Jane Chapple-Hyam 4-8-13 Brett Doyle
Has made giant strides since joining current yard after two runs for Sir Michael Stoute, landing his third course and distance success on February 10 from Cusoon, showing a good turn of foot to settle matters. He is now 9lb worse off for two lengths with the runner-up. Trainer rates him as potential Group class and he must hold good claims, but he will not be much in the way of value and this is the toughest task to date. BP= 3/1

7) 4-0614 TOUS LES DEUX Peter Grayson 4-8-13 Eddie Ahern
Consistent on the all-weather, scoring here in January, and finished fourth behind Mighty and Cusoon over this course and distance earlier this month. No reason why he should reverse the placings on much worse terms and will do well to reach the frame. BP= 66/1

8) 42-417 FUSILI Nick Littmoden 4-8-08 Neil Callan
Progressive filly in 2006, going down by a neck in a Listed event on the turf course at Lingfield in May. Landed decent handicap over 10 furlongs here on January 13, but disappointing later that month over same course and distance when last of seven behind Very Wise, and will need to be on the top of her game to figure here. BP= 25/1

SUMMARY
A fascinating race. The three at the front of the market all seem too short and Cusoon from a stable in form is an excellent each-way price - provided eight go to post.



CODEBREAKER - posted Friday, February 23, 2007

Racing Post Chase Codebreaker

Kempton Park, Saturday, February 24, 2007

3.10pm £100,000 Racing Post Chase (Handicap) Grade 3, 3m



Past trends

19 of the last 20 winners were aged between six and 11

19 of the last 20 winners had finished in the first two at least once earlier in the campaign

18 of the last 20 winners had raced between three and six times earlier in the campaign

18 of the last 20 winners carried 10st 7lb or more to victory

16 of the last 20 winners raced in January or later


The Racing Post Chase, a valuable and competitive three-mile handicap chase, returns to Kempton Park this year following its move to neighbour Sandown in 2006. It has seen a number of top class winners over the years, with the likes Desert Orchid (1990), Rough Quest (1996) and Gloria Victis (2000) appearing on the roll of honour.

A fascinating field of 15 is due to go to post for this year’’s renewal.

As far as the age of past winners is concerned, 19 of the last 20 have been between six and 11. This does not help us this year with all the runners coming within those parameters.

Good form earlier in the season is necessary, with 19 of the last 20 winners having been placed first or second - which means we must say goodbye to Lacdoudal, Hoo La Baloo, Reveillez, Without A Doubt and Iznogoud.

The unusual thing about the Racing Post Chase, unlike many other handicap chases, is that winners tend to come from the top of the handicap rather than the bottom of it.

18 of the last 20 winners carried 10st 7lb or more to victory and Innox last year defied 11st under tony McCoy.

Those at the bottom of the weights look vulnerable and therefore Iron Man and Lady Of Scarvagh are removed from the reckoning, along with the well-supported Lucifer Bleu, who carries only 9st 9lb including jockey Andrew Glassonbury’s 5lb claim.

Horses usually have had a good preparation for the Racing Post Chase, with at least three previous runs but no more than six, as is the case with 18 of the last 20 winners.

Henry Daly’s pair, Billyvoddan and Alderburn, have only run twice so far this season and therefore are dropped from consideration, along with Celtic Son, who has yet to run at all this campaign.

16 of the last 20 winners raced in January or later and Cornish Sett and Limerick Boy fall down on this factor, having both last been seen out in December.

Looking at other factors to find this year’’s victor, 15 of the last 20 scorers had won earlier in the season.

Puntal, runner-up at Wincanton on his latest outing, has yet to get his head in front this term - indeed he has not scored since taking the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown in April 2004 - so he falls by the wayside.

This leaves us with SIMON as this weekend’s Codebreaker selection. An eight-year-old who was successful on his last start and has not been over-raced this season, he looks capable of landing the prize for trainer John Spearing.


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