Saturday, December 4, 2004
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
SANDOWN PARK, SATURDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2004
GOING: GOOD TO SOFT (GOOD IN PLACES)
BP = at the time of writing but for the best current odds go to www.BritOdds.com (Click on link above)
2.35pm £125,000 William Hill Tingle Creek Trophy Chase, 2m
1) 211-1 AZERTYUIOP Paul Nicholls 7-11-07 Ruby Walsh
Arguably the most exciting chaser in training and it’s not really a surprise that he is odds-on. However, he comes up against Moscow Flyer who beat him by four lengths in this event last season and his price looks far too skinny to be value.
2) 29-50 BLAZING BATMAN Dr Philip Pritchard 11-11-07 Dr Philip Pritchard
There’s been some debate as to whether horses like this should be taking on some of the best two-mile chasers around. With £1,875 on offer for beating one other rival and getting around, who can blame Philip Pritchard for running him? No chance though.
3) 41-1U CENKOS Paul Nicholls 10-11-07 Richard Johnson
The winner of this event two years ago, Cenkos ranks high among the two-mile chasers finishing 3rd, 3rd and 4th in the last three renewals of the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham. His owner has stated publicly that she believes he cannot beat Azertyuiop or Moscow Flyer, but perhaps he is the value of the whole field as he loves Sandown. Back him on the betting exchanges where he is nearly double the bookmaker’s odds of 20/1. Richard Johnson rides him for the first time which may have an impact. BP=20/1
4) U1-11 MOSCOW FLYER Jessica Harrington IRE 10-11-07 Barry Geraghty
This horse wins his races if he doesn’t have a mishap - in 20 starts over fences he has won 15, fallen twice and unseated his rider three times. Jump racing is lucky to have two stars such as this fellow and Azertyuiop at present and this contest might allow us to judge who really is the better horse. Everyone will be hoping that he stands up so we can finally find out.
5) 56-45 UPGRADE Martin Pipe 10-11-07 Tom Scudamore
Martin Pipe’s second string on jockey bookings and he hasn’t won a conditions race since 2002. However, he is a useful handicapper who deserves his place but it would be a major shock if he wins this.
6) 111-2 WELL CHIEF Martin Pipe 5-11-07 Timmy Murphy
Last year’s Irish Independent Arkle winner is something of the ‘young pretender’ here. He made a good seasonal debut when going down by a head to Armaturk in a Handicap at Cheltenham and the Pipe team are in tremendous form at present. A slight doubt as to whether coming up against the front two in the betting might find him out. He’s only ever lost once over the bigger obstacles but lacks experience. BP=13/2
7) 3196P BLACKCHURCH MIST Brendan Duke 7-11-00 Colin Studd
See comments on Blazing Batman above - the same applies except for the substitution of Brendan Duke in place of Philip Pritchard.
This is a race to relish rather than bet on but Cenkos is the forgotten horse of the race at 40/1 with the betting exchanges which is clearly value in case of mishaps or mistakes by the top two in the betting.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink