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Saturday, November 5, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2005
DONCASTER




1:20pm £20,000 added Stratstone Land Rover Handicap 2m 110yd



GOING:SOFT

for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


1(4) 2-45 Elusive Dream Sir Mark Prescott 4-9-12 Seb Sanders
Good fifth in the very competitive Cesarewitch over an extra quarter mile last time. Fresh after only two runs this campaign but has to give weight all round. BP= 100/30

2(6) 1611 Indian Pipe Dream John Gosden 3-9-08 Jimmy Fortune
Progressive this autumn and successful twice, including over two miles on soft ground, since returning from a summer break but lines of form of form suggest that he may be too close in the weights to Elusive Dream. BP=11/4

3(5) 1211 The Nawab John Dunlop 3-9-01 Ian Mongan
Won a two and a half mile soft ground handicap at York last time in great style, with the field strung out. The form looks strong. Stamina is not an issue and he is clearly on the upgrade. BP=11/4

4(1) 11-8 Don’t Call Me Derek John Quinn 4-9-01 Graham Gibbons
Well beaten last time on first start since March. Could be gearing up for a return to hurdles. BP=22/1

5(2) 2441 Toldo George Moore 3-8-13 Shane Kelly
Untried at trip but looks a stayer after an impressive soft ground win at the course last time at one mile, six and a half furlongsbut he may not have beaten that much. BP=4/1

6(3) 1890 Subtle Affair Mick Quinlan 3-8-04 b1 Alan Munro
Well beaten in all three starts since a maiden win in May. BP=50/1

SUMMARY
Despite having just six runners, this is a tricky affair but the value is clearly with The Nawab who spreadeagled a classy York field last time out and looks to have the best form.



TOTESPORT NOVEMBER STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) CODEBREAKER

3.35pm £50,000 1m 4f, Doncaster, Saturday, November 5, 2005



Main Trends

all of the last 20 winners were placed in the first four on their most recent start

18 of the last 20 winners had already been successful at least once earlier in the season

17 of the last 20 winners were drawn nine or higher

17 of the last 20 winners had raced at least five times earlier in the season

As the curtain falls on the Flat turf season, Doncaster stages the traditional major final act this Saturday (November 5) in the shape of the £50,000 added totesport November Stakes (Heritage Handicap).


All of the past 20 winners finished in the first four on their latest outing which immediately slims down the 22-strong 2005 field.


Those who do not comply are Wunderwood, Frank Sonata, Akarem, Red Lancer, Artistic Style, Lets Roll, Come On Jonny, Jeepstar, Nessen Dorma, Protective, Ryan’s Future, Grooms Affection and Wellington Hall and they are immediately discounted.
Young Benz in 1988 and 2003 hero Turbo were unusual winners of the November Stakes in that they were the only scorers in the last 20 years not to have won another contest earlier in the campaign.


Of those remaining, Wingman is the only contender yet to score this season and he disappears from the reckoning.


As to the draw, 17 of the last 20 winners were drawn nine or higher. The three exceptions were Royal Cavalier (stall five) in 2001, Firelight Fiesta, who came out of stall one in 1989 and Carte Diamond who prevailed from stall three last term.


All of the remaining runners drawn in stalls one to eight must be discounted, and this rules out Group Captain.


When Carte Diamond won this event last season, he became only the third winner in the last 20 runnings to have raced on less than five occasions earlier in the term, joining Sabadilla who was successful in 1997 and Azzaam who was victorious seven years earlier.


This means that Codebreaker can discard Gold Gun who has been seen on a racecourse only twice this term.


A perusal of age reveals that three-year-olds have been victorious in 11 of the last 20 renewals. Rawdon, Tarandot and Estepona are four-year-olds, an age-group that has been far less successful since 1985 with only five successes.


No horse older than six has won the race during this period so the eight-year-old Torrid Kentavr is eliminated also.


Of the 11 successful three-year-olds, seven were colts or geldings while four were fillies.

This means that John Dunlop’s colt EBTIKAAR gets the nod as this week’s Codebreaker ahead of the filly Sirce.




THE 2005 CARTIER RACING AWARDS


The 2005 Cartier Racing Awards, European racing’s equivalent of the Oscars, will be revealed in great style on the evening of Wednesday, November 16, at the Four Seasons Hotel in London, England.


The awards, recognised as the most prestigious within European horseracing, will honour the best horses of a tremendous Flat season, as well as a man (men) or woman (women) who has (have) made an outstanding contribution to the sport. This is the 15th year of the Cartier Racing Awards.


The eight horse awards are decided by a carefully structured combination of points achieved in Pattern races, the views of racing journalists on Cartier’s Racing Panel, and votes from readers of Racing Post and The Daily Telegraph. The Pattern races count towards 40 per cent of the total, with the Cartier Racing Panel’s deliberations also having a 40 per cent share and the votes of the newspaper readers making up the final 20 per cent.

Most of the categories are too close to call at the moment, with Cartier’s Racing Panel, which consists of Brough Scott (Racing Post & Sunday Telegraph), Graham Dench (Racing Post), Julian Muscat (Times), Colin Mackenzie (Daily Mail) and Richard Evans (Daily Telegraph), and the newspaper readers still deliberating - voting concludes on November 9.


Last year’s glittering ceremony saw awards won by Shamardal, Westerner, Divine Proportions, Soviet Song and Ouija Board among others.


Though this year’s winners have yet to be decided, Divine Proportions, Shamardal and Westerner are again strong contenders for Cartier Racing Awards.


Divine Proportions, trained by Pascal Bary in France, was acclaimed the Cartier Two-Year-Old Filly last year and is the leading candidate for this year’s Cartier Three-Year-Old Filly Award.

She maintained her unbeaten record until her final start and enjoyed three Group One victories including two Classics - her five-length success in the Gainsborough Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French Guineas) at Longchamp was followed by impressive wins in the Prix de Diane Hermes (French Oaks) at Chantilly and the Prix d’Astarte at Deauville.


She then finished fourth to Dubawi in the Group One Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard Jacques le Marois at Deauville and it transpired that the filly had sustained a leg injury which led to her retirement.


Shamardal took the 2004 Cartier Two-Year-Old Colt Award. The colt went from strength to strength on turf this year for Godolphin and, like Divine Proportions, won three Group Ones including two French Classics before an injury that forced his retirement.


The first of these successes came in the Gainsborough Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) at Longchamp, followed by a narrow victory over subsequent Irish Derby and Arc hero Hurricane Run in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) at Chantilly.

The trio of Group One victories for the Saeed bin Suroor-trained colt was completed in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot at York where Shamardal produced a sublime front-running performance to score a scintillating three-length victory. He is currently head to head with Hurricane Run for the Cartier Three-Year-Old Colt Award.


Defeat by Shamardal in the Prix du Jockey Club proved to be the only one so far in the short but illustrious career of Hurricane Run, trained in France by Andre Fabre, who is also a contender for Cartier Horse Of The Year, along with Shamardal, Divine Proportions and Westerner.


Successful in six of his seven starts, he captured the Budweiser Irish Derby at the Curragh following his reverse in the French equivalent, beating subsequent Ladbrokes St Leger hero Scorpion by half a length, before completing his Arc preparation by winning the Prix Niel Casino Barriere at Longchamp.


In the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Lucien Barriere, Hurricane Run produced a brilliant performance. Settled in the rear in the early stages by Kieren Fallon, the three-year-old made rapid headway up the inside to produce a burst of speed that none of his rivals could match, winning by two lengths.


The victory saw Hurricane Run emulate his sire Montjeu, who won the great French race in 1999 and went on to receive the Cartier Three-Year-Old Colt Award the same year.

Beaten into second in this year’s Paris showpiece behind Hurricane Run was Westerner, winner of the Cartier Stayer Of The Year Award last year. The Elie Lellouche-trained six-year-old this year triumphed in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot at York, defeating Distinction by a neck under a cool ride from Olivier Peslier, and two subsequent placed efforts in top-class company over a mile and a half proved the horse’s versatility.


The points on October 31 stood at

Cartier Horse of the Year
Hurricane Run 128
Shamardal 128
Divine Proportions 116
Westerner 107

Cartier Two-Year-Old Colt
George Washington 80
Horatio Nelson 72
Amadeus Wolf 52
Red Clubs 52

Cartier Two-Year-Old Filly
Rumplestiltskin 82
Donna Blini 48
Nannina 42
Flashy Wings 40

Cartier Three-Year-Old Colt
Hurricane Run 128
Shamardal 128
Scorpion 106
Motivator 92

Cartier Three-Year-Old Filly
Divine Proportions 116
Shawanda 64
Virginia Waters 64
Maids Causeway 56

Cartier Older Horse of the Year
Westerner 107
Azamour 95
Alexander Goldrun 84
Alcazar 78

Cartier Stayer of the Year
Westerner 80
Alcazar 78
Reefscape 64
Distinction 48

Cartier Sprinter of the Year
Avonbridge 64
La Cucaracha 56
Goodricke 48
Cape Of Good Hope 34

The Daily Telegraph Award Of Merit is for the person or persons who, in the opinion of the special Cartier Jury, has/have done most for European racing and/or breeding either over their lifetime or within the past 12 months.

The list of past winners of the Daily Telegraph Award of Merit is as follows; David & Patricia Thompson, Lord Oaksey, Prince Khalid Abdullah , John Magnier, His Highness The Aga Khan, Peter Walwyn, the Head Family, Sir Peter O'Sullevan, Frankie Dettori, John Dunlop, the Marquess of Hartington, Francois Boutin, Lester Piggott and Henri Chalhoub.


The 2005 Cartier Jury includes Henry Beeby, Charlie Brooks, Mick Channon, The Earl of Derby, Chris Deuters, Mike Dillon, Richard Evans, Christopher Foster, Philip Freedman, Lisa Hancock, Peter Jones, Simon Marsh, Sir Peter O'Sullevan, Anthony Penfold, Chris Richardson, John Sexton, Sir David Sieff, Jeff Smith and Howard Wright.


The Cartier Racing Awards were established in 1991 to recognise excellence in the racehorse.


Background Information
A full list of past winners at the Cartier Racing Awards

2004
Two-Year-Old Colt: Shamardal
Two-Year-Old Filly: Divine Proportions
Three-Year-Old Colt: Bago
Three-Year-Old Filly: Ouija Board
Sprinter: Somnus
Stayer: Westerner
Older Horse: Soviet Song
Horse of the Year: Ouija Board owned by Lord Derby
Daily Telegraph Award of Merit: David & Patricia Thompson

2003
Two-Year-Old Colt: One Cool Cat
Two-Year-Old Filly: Attraction
Three-Year-Old Colt: Dalakhani
Three-Year-Old Filly: Russian Rhythm
Sprinter: Oasis Dream
Stayer: Persian Punch
Older Horse: Falbrav
Horse of the Year: Dalakhani owned by HH The Aga Khan
Daily Telegraph Award of Merit: Lord Oaksey

2002
Two-Year-Old Colt: Hold That Tiger
Two-Year-Old Filly: Six Perfections
Three-Year-Old Colt: Rock of Gibraltar
Three-Year-Old Filly: Kazzia
Sprinter: Continent
Older Horse: Grandera
Stayer: Vinnie Roe
Horse of the Year: Rock of Gibraltar owned by Sir Alex Ferguson/Sue Magnier
Daily Telegraph Award of Merit: Prince Khalid Bin Abdullah
Special Award: Tony McCoy

2001
Two-Year-Old Filly: Queen's Logic
Two-Year-Old Colt: Johannesburg
Three-Year-Old Filly: Banks Hill
Three-Year-Old Colt: Galileo
Stayer: Persian Punch
Sprinter: Mozart
Older Horse: Fantastic Light
Horse of the Year: Fantastic Light owned by Godolphin
Daily Telegraph Award of Merit: John Magnier

2000
Two-Year-Old Filly: Superstar Leo
Two-Year-Old Colt: Tobougg
Three-Year-Old Filly: Petrushka
Three-Year-Old Colt: Sinndar
Stayer: Kayf Tara
Sprinter: Nuclear Debate
Older Horse: Kalanisi
Horse of the Year: Giants Causeway owned by Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor
Cartier Millennium Award of Merit: HM the Queen
Daily Telegraph Award of Merit: HH the Aga Khan

1999
Two-Year-Old Filly: Torgau
Two-Year-Old Colt: Fasliyev
Three-Year-Old Filly: Ramruma
Three-Year-Old Colt: Montjeu
Stayer: Kayf Tara
Sprinter: Stravinsky
Older Horse: Daylami
Horse of the Year: Daylami owned by Godolphin
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: Peter Walwyn

1998
Two-Year-Old Colt: Aljabr
Two-Year-Old Filly: Bint Allayl
Three-Year-Old Colt: Dream Well
Three-Year-Old Filly: Cape Verdi
Sprinter: Tamarisk
Stayer: Kayf Tara
Older Horse: Swain
Horse of the Year: Dream Well owned by the Niarchos Family
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: the Head Family

1997
Two-Year-Old Filly: Embassy
Two-Year-Old Colt: Xaar
Three-Year-Old Filly: Ryafan
Three-Year-Old Colt: Peintre Celebre
Stayer: Celeric
Sprinter: Royal Applause
Older Horse: Pilsudski
Horse of the Year: Peintre Celebre owned by Daniel Wildenstein
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: Sir Peter O'Sullevan

1996
Two-Year-Old Filly: Pas De Response
Two-Year-Old Colt: Bahamian Bounty
Three-Year-Old Filly: Bosra Sham
Three-Year-Old Colt: Helissio
Stayer: Nononito
Sprinter: Anabaa
Older Horse: Halling
Horse of the Year: Helissio owned by Enrique Sarasola
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: Frankie Dettori

1995
Two-Year-Old Filly: Blue Duster
Two-Year-Old Colt: Alhaarth
Three-Year-Old Filly: Ridgewood Pearl
Three-Year-Old Colt: Lammtarra
Stayer: Double Trigger
Sprinter: Hever Golf Rose
Older Horse: Further Flight
Horse of the Year: Ridgewood Pearl owned by Mrs Sean Coughlan
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: John Dunlop

1994
Two-Year-Old Filly: Gay Gallanta
Two-Year-Old Colt: Celtic Swing
Three-Year-Old Filly: Balanchine
Three-Year-Old Colt: King’s Theatre
Stayer: Moonax
Sprinter: Lochsong
Older Horse: Barathea
Horse of the Year: Barathea owned by Sheikh Mohammed
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: Marquess of Hartington

1993
Two-Year-Old Filly: Lemon Souffle
Two-Year-Old Colt: First Trump
Three-Year-Old Filly: Intrepidity
Three-Year-Old Colt: Commander in Chief
Stayer: Vintage Crop
Sprinter: Lochsong
Older Horse: Opera House
Horse of the Year: Lochsong owned by Jeff Smith
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: Francois Boutin

1992
Two-Year-Old Filly: Lyric Fantasy
Two-Year-Old Colt: Zafonic
Three-Year-Old Filly: User Friendly
Three-Year-Old Colt: Rodrigo De Triano
Stayer: Drum Taps
Sprinter: Mr Brooks
Older Horse: Mr Brooks
Horse of the Year: User Friendly owned by Bill Gredley
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: Lester Piggott

1991
Two-Year-Old Filly: Culture Vulture
Two-Year-Old Colt: Arazi
Three-Year-Old Filly: Kooyonga
Three-Year-Old Colt: Suave Dancer
Stayer: Turgeon
Sprinter: Sheikh Albadou
Older Horse: Terimon
Horse of the Year: Arazi owned by Allen Paulson & Sheikh Mohammed
Cartier Telegraph Award of Merit: Henri Chalhoub


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