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Saturday, November 26, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2005
NEWBURY




3.50pm £30,000 Stan James Intermediate Limited Handicap Hurdle 2m 110yds



GOING:GOOD

for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


1)1111-62 Genghis (IRE) NON-RUNNER

2) 33/112- It's Just Harry Charlie Egerton 8-11-10 Robert Thornton
Useful juvenile hurdler last season. Has not run for nearly 11 months but stable in good form. BP= 7/1

3) 16252-3 Phar Bleu (FR) Paul Nicholls 4-11-08 Ruby Walsh
Consistent sort who made a great comeback in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. Looks the one to beat. BP= 7/2

4) 13132- Dusky Warbler Gary Moore 6-11-08 Jamie Moore
Neverout of the first three during his initial season over hurdles. But has not run since April. BP= 11/2

5) 7241-91 Flying Enterprise (IRE) Venetia Williams 5-11-07 Sam Thomas
Won weaker handicap hurdle at Haydock last weekend but this is a much tougher race. BP= 10/1

6) 7/F1105- Only Vintage (USA) Henrietta Knight 5-11-03 Timmy Murphy
Has something to prove after being well beaten in top races at the end of last season. Has not run since April. BP=28/1

7) 2032-75 Cherub (GER) Jonjo O'Neill 5-11-00 Tony McCoy
No disgraced last time but is likely to need to drop down the handicap further. BP= 7/1

8) 312-24 Afrad (FR) Nicky Henderson 4-10-11 Mick Fitzgerald
Fit from running on the Flat and his chance must be respected. BP= 9/2

9) 51109-5 Manorson (IRE) Oliver Sherwood 6-10-09 Graham Lee
Fair run on return but his overall form does not look good enough in this classy contest. BP= 7/1

10) 1P210-7 Migwell (FR) Lucy Wadham 5-10-07 Andrew Thornton
Needs further than this two miles. BP= 33/1

11) 22125-3 Dom d'Orgeval (FR) Nick Williams 5-10-04 Richard Johnson
Consistent sort but this might be asking a lot. BP= 16/1

SUMMARY
The favourite PHAR BLEU is well priced at 7/2.



2005 HENNESSY COGNAC GOLD CUP CODEBREAKER

Newbury, Saturday, November 26, 2005

2.40pm £125,000 Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m 2.5f




Past Trends

all of the last 20 winners were aged between six and nine

all of the last 20 winners were placed in the first three on their last outing whether in the same or last season

19 of the last 20 winners carried between 10st and 11st to victory

17 of the last 20 winners were priced at 10/1 or lower

16 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debuts or had raced between one and two times earlier in the campaign



The Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup is always one of the highlights and is the first major staying handicap chase of the jump campaign.


Although, always regarded as a very competitive contest, there are a number of trends that can be used to pinpoint the likely winner.


The first is that every winner of the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup since 1985 has been aged between six and nine. So we can immediately rule out the 10 year-old Redemption, the only horse older than nine.


Good form is absolutely essential to winning this top-class handicap. In the last 20 years every single winner was placed in the first three on their previous outing whether it came in the same or the previous season.


None of Comply Or Die, Joe’s Edge, Colourful Life, Lord Of Illusion, Tribal Venture, King Harald or Distant Thunder managed to be placed on their most recent run and they are therefore discounted.


Only one horse since 1985 has carried more than 11st to victory - Suny Bay in 1997 shouldered 11st 8lb - and Trabolgan is carry to shoulder top-weight of 11st 12lb and no top-weight has triumphed in the last 20 runnings, while Cornish Rebel with 11st 11lb, Ballycassidy with 11st 6lb, L’Ami with 11st 5lb and Irish Bleu with 11st 3lb all appear to have too much weight.


Despite the competitiveness of this handicap chase, the betting market is usually a very accurate guide with 17 of the last 20 winners being priced at 10/1 or lower.

All In The Stars, Ross Comm, Run For Paddy, St. Matthew are all currently priced well above the threshold and are considered unlikely winners.


This leaves just two to choose from - Red Devil Robert and Kandjar D’Allier. Both are seven-year-olds and both have had one run this season.


But the choice between them is easy. Kandjar D’Allier was third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut but has yet to even tackle three miles - the previous 20 winners had all at least run over three miles before.


Red Devil Robert came second to Iris Bleu in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton on his seasonal debut and that race has generated three Hennessy winners since 1998.


For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive


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