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Saturday, January 31, 2004


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY



DONCASTER, SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2004



3:15 £50,000 Sky Bet Handicap Chase 3m

GOING: Good to soft, soft in places (raining)
BP = best odds offered from Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Tote, Stanleybet. Bet365, William Hill

1) -541 Lord Noelie 31 Bridget Nicholls 11-11-12 Jim Crowley
Was ridden by Tony McCoy when winning at Cheltenham last time out. That was his first success for a long time and he seems to prefer better ground than will be available today. Trickier task today.

BP= 12/1 Blue Square & Ladbrokes

2) 1B14 Take The Stand 35 Peter Bowen 8-11-05 Seamus Durack 159
Found conditions and the trip - 3m 6f - too far when fourth to Bindaree in the Coral Welsh National. Had a good run of success before that and has gone up in the weights.

BP= 12/1 Blue Square

3) 2273 Just In Debt 136 Martin Todhunter 8-11-01 Timmy Murphy
Ex-Irish sort who has not raced since September and is best watched. 153
BP= 16/1 Stanleybet

4) P-35 Montifault 21 Paul Nicholls 910-13t R P McNally (3) 154
Has become disappointing and was well beaten last time out.

BP= 20/1 Blue Square & Tote

5) 6P-6 Carryonharry 35 Martin Pipe 10-10-08 G Supple (3)
One of three Martin Pipe contenders. Had not run for a long time when racing at Kempton just after Christmas and was a bit rusty. Should have come on for that but is not the easiest rides. Even so at these odds, it is worth taking a chance and he is excellent value. 153
BP= 25/1 Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Bet 365 and William Hill

6) -U22 Jimmy Tennis 28 Venetia Williams 7-10-06 Brian Crowley 159
Ex French chaser who could be good but for his habit of making mistakes at fences. He is young though and still has potential and cannot be dismissed.

BP= 10/1 Ladbrokes

7) F-41 Jaloux D žEstruval 30 Lavinia Taylor 710-5 Tim Doyle 154
Likes soft ground but is another who has been known to make mistakes and this is a tougher race than last time at Exeter. Pricewise of the Racing Postís selection and all value has now gone.

BP= 7/1 Coral Eurobet & Bet365

8) F64S Montreal 30 Martin Pipe 7-10-04 J P Elliott (5) 159
Another Pipe horse but a disappointing one this season.

BP= 33/1 Coral Eurobet & Blue Square

9) 22P2 Tyneandthyneagain 21 Richard Guest 9-10-04 Henry Oliver 157
Re-routed from abandoned Uttoxeter, he plods on at the end of his races.

BP= 20/1 Bet365

10) 1111 Magical Bailiwick 14 Martin Pipe 8-10-03 Jamie Moore(3) 154
Run up a quick four timer and is obviously improving. However, this is his toughest task.

BP= 4/1 Coral Eurobet & Blue Square

11) -622 Tonoco 33 Sue Smith 11-10-02 Warren Marston 154
Consistent sort who ran very well last time and has to enter calculations. He is good value at these odds and came third in this race last year.

BP= 12/1 Tote & William Hill

12) 1F11 Rodalko 44 Oliver Sherwood 6-10-01 Jimmy McCarthy 157
Likes to make the running and has won three of his last four starts. Improving sort who is facing his toughest task today.

BP= 9/2 Tote

13) -8F5 Luzcadou non-runner 158

14) 4331 Gottabe 12 Sue Smith 11-10-00 J R Ryan(7) 152
A fair sort who here at the last meeting and cannot be dismissed but his odds are a bit skinny.

BP= 8/1 Coral Eurobet

15) 113P Tyndarius 25 James Hetherton 13-10-00 P Whelan(3)
In good form earlier in the season but disappointed last time out.

BP= 40/1 Blue Square

SUMMARY
The rain has come, making the conditions more testing than expected and it is worth opposing the market leaders. Codebreaker normally sticks to one horse but there are two here who are good value. TONOCO is the main contender for this column but it is worth also having a little bit on the Martin Pipe-trained Carryonharry who could surprise.



GOOD LUCK


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