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Saturday, October 22, 2005



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




NEWBURY, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2005




3:45pm GroupThree Stan James St Simon Stakes 1 mile 4 furlongs



GOING:GOOD TO SOFT, SOFT IN PLACES

for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


1) (3) -1112 Day Flight John Gosden 4-9-03 Richard Hughes
Won over course and distance back in April with four of today’s rivals just behind. Successful in the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester next time before running second to the enterprisingly ridden Gamut in a Group 2 at Newmarket in July. Likes cut in the ground but has not run since July and has to give weight all round. Not out of it though as stable in form but the value is not there . BP= 7/2

2) (7) 1119 Mubtaker Marcus Tregoning 8-9-03 Richard Hills
Evergreen eight-year-old who has won three times this term. Ran a neck second to Lochbuie in the G2 Stan James Geoffrey Freer Stakes here in August and last seen when beaten 12 lengths by Hurricane Run in the Group 1 Arc earlier this month.. Loves this course having won five times here. Has a good chance but again no value. BP= 7/2

3) (10) 7-00 Asian Heights Geoff Wragg 7-9-00 Darryll Holland
One-time smart performer and dual Group 3 winner. Two runs this term have been disappointing and was well behind several of today’s opponents in a listed contest at Newmarket in September. Would need a dramatic return to form to figure in this company. BP= 66/1

4) (5) 2015 Dubai Success Barry Hills 5-9-00p Michael Hills
Has run some good races at the course, winning a Group 3 in 2004 and placed in this race in 2003. Not so good this term, including last time when beaten in a Listed race over two miles in September but he returns to his best trip of 12 furlongs and has the ground he likes. BP= 10/1

5) (9) 7364 Frank Sonata M Quinlan 4-9-00 Ryan Moore
Beaten 15 lengths into second in this race last year by Orcadian on heavy ground. Has five and a three quarter lengths to make up on Munsef on latest Newmarket running but may be better suited by Newbury and has an each-way chance on ground likely to suit and over his right distance. BP= 16/1

6) (2) 4677 Red Lancer R Price 4-9-00 George Baker
Won the Chester Vase as a three year-old but has not recaptured that form since. Finished seventh of eight runners in a Listed contest last time out in August and looks one of the outsiders today. BP= 66/1

7) (6) 3627 Self Defense Ms E Lavelle 8-9-00 Alan Munro
Admirable campaigner who mixes Flat racing with a hurdling career. However, he has never won at this level. He also need things to go right in a race. BP= 16/1

8) (8) 4-13 Saeed Bin Suroor 5-9-00 L Dettori
Lightly raced this term and ran well last time to be third over two miles at York in August. Could run well without being good enough to win. Unproven on soft ground. BP= 13/2

9) (1) 21 De Laurentiis Aidan O’Brien 3-8-07 C O’Donoghue
Unexposed three year-old having had only two runs, latest when successful in a mile and a half race at Listowel in September. Will need to have made substantial improvement since then to mix it with today’s proven Group-race performers. BP= 12/1

10) (4) 2111 Munsef John Dunlop 3-8-07 W Supple
Improving colt on a four-timer who won from three of today’s field last time at Newmarket. Looks sure to run a big race but the owner’s stable jockey prefers Mubtaker and he may just lack the experience of a couple of today’s opponents. The ground could also be a problem. BP= 100/30

SUMMARY
This is an intriguing contest with plenty in with chances. Day Flight and Mubtaker are sure to be popular and Munsef looks a progressive sort, but FRANK SONATA appeals as a likely outsider and could reward each-way support.



LIFE CHANGING AMOUNTS UP FOR GRABS



A £2 Coral customer from Norwich hit the bar on the totescoop6 last week when he was the only player to make it through to the fifth leg in a week that provided a 14/1 and 20/1 winner.

Unfortunately his selection, Pride, finished second with his agony compounded by the fact that his sixth selection, Sergeant Cecil, went on to win.

That news means that there is a massive life changing amount up for grabs today. With £255,700 in the win fund and £238,140 in the bonus fund a single winner could neat nearly
£3/4 million.


Races today are divided Doncaster and Newbury and include the Racing Post Trophy and the £1million totetentofollow Handicap.


The tote’s Paul Petrie commented "The rollovers have now reached true life changing amounts and with only a few weeks left of the Flat season it would be a great way to end it."


totescoop6 TV Legs

Leg 1 2.20 Doncaster

Leg 2 2.40 Newbury

Leg 3 2.55 Doncaster

Leg 4 3.10 Newbury

Leg 5 3.30 Doncaster

Leg 6 3.45 Newbury

Win Fund - £255,700

Bonus Fund - £238,140



RACENEWS CODEBREAKER - THE RACING POST TROPHY

3.30pm, Doncaster, Saturday, October 22, 2005



Past Trends

16 of the last 17 winners had previously won at least once
15 of the last 17 winners had finished in the first two on their last outing
14 of the last 17 winners were priced at 9/2 or shorter


Codebreaker opted for second-placed Albert Hall ahead of the victorious Motivator in last year’s Racing Post Trophy over a mile at Doncaster but successfully picked out Criquette Head-Maarek’s American Post to win the race in 2004. Hopefully, this year we can regain the winning thread.


16 of the last 17 winners of the £216,000 Racing Post Trophy had previously won at least once - the one exception to this rule was Dilshaan in 2000. Sir Michael Stoute’s charge stayed on to lead inside the last 100 yards to beat Tamburlaine by two and a half lengths.


Aidan O’Brien has a fantastic record in the race so Mountain, second on his only start in a Navan mile maiden, should be respected. However, he has yet to get his head in front and is immediately discounted.


15 of the last 17 winners of the race had finished in the first two on their last outing. The two anomalies were Godolphin’s Medaaly in 1996, fifth on his previous start, and Seattle Rhyme, who came third .


Palace Episode, fifth in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes last time, and Arabian Prince, third at Salisbury are both removed from the equation.

14 of the last 17 winners were priced at 9/2 or shorter. The winners who broke this rule were Dilshaan (14/1), Aristotle (10/1) and Medaaly (14/1).


This means the demise of Dylan Thomas, Best Alibi, Kilworth, and Hazeymm who are 8/1 or greater chances with bet365

Separating the unbeaten pair, Winged Cupid and Septimus, is no easy task but the latter is this week’s Codebreaker selection.


The selection’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has won this event on four occasions, courtesy of Saratoga Springs in 1997, Aristotle in 1999, High Chaparral in 2001 and Brian Boru in 2002. Septimus can emulate Saratoga Springs by adding the Racing Post Trophy to his Beresford Stakes victory.


In contrast Mark Johnston, who saddles Winged Cupid, a winner twice at a mile, has yet to win a Racing Post Trophy.




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